If preseason polls and rankings are to serve as an indication, then North Dakota State is a team causing prognosticators plenty of confusion. Using eight different preseason projections, I used standard deviation to determine which team's ranking has varied the most. NDSU wins by a long shot. And for good reason. The Bison went 8-10 in conference play a year ago with a very young roster. Coach Saul Phillips welcomes back most of the players from that squad, but he loses leading scorer Michael Tveidt. Naturally, many people might reasonably assume that the team will finish with a similar record given its youth and lack of an upperclassmen scorer. However, as the dissension in the polls indicates, others are more bullish about NDSU's prospects this season. And for good reason.
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| Michael Tveidt has graduated, but NDSU will still have a few bald guys |
Freshmen Become Sophomores
North Dakota State quietly put together the Summit League's deepest and most talented freshman class in 2010. The three key pieces to the class -- center Marshall Bjorklund, forward TrayVonn Wright, and swingman Taylor Braun -- each had a promising freshman campaign. Bjorklund and Braun were regular starters and performed particularly well during conference play. All three are back this season along with sophomores Fred Newell and Mike Felt. In fact, NDSU has the highest number of returning freshmen minutes of any Summit League team.
Why does that matter? Well, as the guys at Big Ten Geeks have proved, Division I players make the biggest leap in production level from their freshman to sophomore years. In other words, the leap players make from Year 1 to Year 2 is greater than the one they make from Year 2 to Year 4 (on average). The evidence is rather astounding, and it means wonders for NDSU's chances in 2011-12.
These might be empty words if not for the fact that these sophomores were so great as freshmen. The quartet of Braun, Bjorklund, Felt, and Wright had an average offensive rating of 116 in 2010-11. Just as impressive, the Braun-Bjorklund-Wright triumvirate was incredibly effective on the glass, grabbing a combined 14.6 rebounds per game in conference play -- as freshmen! Braun specifically found his groove in conference play. He made 62 percent of his two-pointers against league opponents, and then he had three double-doubles in the month of February. Performances like that suggest Braun could make up for the loss of Tveidt.
The sophomore class doesn't end with these recruits. It is rounded out by forward Jordan Aaberg and guard Dylan Hale, a pair of players who are sophomores by way of redshirt. Aaberg missed all of last year with an injury, but now he gives the team some much needed depth in the frontcourt. Hale sat out last year after transferring from Texas State. If these guys make the big freshman-to-sophomore leap, then NDSU all of a sudden is an even deeper team than expected.
Defense
Though North Dakota State finished the season with an 8-10 record, it was not for a lack of effort on the defensive end. The Bison defenders guarded very well both in the paint and on the perimeter, which allowed the team to hold opponents to just 1.03 points per possession in conference play. In a year where offense reigned supreme in the Summit League, that mark was good for second-best in the conference. The Bison trailed only Oakland in defensive efficiency.
Perhaps a sign of how well the Bison freshmen developed last season, the team's defensive efficiency improved drastically as conference play wore on. The chart below depicts this trend.
As the chart shows, the NDSU defense continued to improve at an impressive rate throughout the month of February. If Coach Phillips can get his players to subscribe to this defensive approach again in 2011-12, then the Bison will be a tough out throughout league play.
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| Senior Eric Carlson could be an x-factor for NDSU this season |
Eric Carlson, The Wild Card
One of the biggest wild cards for North Dakota State, if not the entire league, is senior Eric Carlson. The 6-foot-6 forward was once considered a rising star in the Summit League, but then he regressed quite a bit in his junior campaign. For proof, check out a comparison of his conference statistics from his sophomore and junior years.
| PPG | RPG | ORtg | Poss% | ||
| Junior | 9.3 | 4.4 | 96.5 | 25.8 | |
| Sophomore | 15.4 | 6.4 | 101.4 | 27.4 |
Carlson still contributed in his junior year, but he wasn't quite as effective or efficient as he was in his second season. If he finds that magic touch again, then NDSU will have one of the more potent frontcourts in the Summit League, perhaps trailing only ORU in such a category.
The facts presented above suggest that North Dakota State is being undervalued in its contender status for 2011-12. Despite such evidence, perhaps it is for the better that the Bison are floating under the radar. After all, this is still a very young team that could use some more time to grow together, particularly on the offensive end where there are still some question marks. Most importantly, NDSU needs for one of its many point guards to emerge as a legitimate distributor. The good thing is that Coach Phillips has plenty of options at point guard, whether he goes with veterans like Drew Lundberg and Nate Zastrow or freshmen like Lawrence Alexander and Joel Lindberg. If one or more of these guys can adequately steer the ship, then look out for this Bison team.
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The facts presented above suggest that North Dakota State is being undervalued in its contender status for 2011-12. Despite such evidence, perhaps it is for the better that the Bison are floating under the radar. After all, this is still a very young team that could use some more time to grow together, particularly on the offensive end where there are still some question marks. Most importantly, NDSU needs for one of its many point guards to emerge as a legitimate distributor. The good thing is that Coach Phillips has plenty of options at point guard, whether he goes with veterans like Drew Lundberg and Nate Zastrow or freshmen like Lawrence Alexander and Joel Lindberg. If one or more of these guys can adequately steer the ship, then look out for this Bison team.
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